German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures (OR The Coming of Apophis)

[Timber Wolf]

German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper Tue Apr 15, 5:44 PM ET

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080415/sc_afp/spaceastronomygermany_080415214429



A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

[Ransom v. Unman]

/dances around

/waits for the end

[Rebecca]

Does anyone else find it interesting that there's seven years between those two dates? I don't buy into all the "end of the world" stuff, but as a writer, it gets my imagination going. For all the pre-tribbers, what if that's the catalyst for the one world government--to find a way to defeat this asteroid?

Like I said, my imagination running away, and I don't believe it. But it's an interesting premise for a story. :p

Rebecca

[cpbookworm]

Well, the Bible does say that one of the trumpet judgements of Revelation is a burning mountain falling into the sea, destroying 1/3 of the world's ships, among other things. Very interesting article, thanks for posting it. I happen to be interested in the end times, and things which may possibly pertain to it. Scripture is quite clear that the time is coming when God will display His great wrath on the earth in mighty signs and disasters. Looking at the signs of the times, it could happen very soon. Most of the things that must be in place are in place or planned to be executed soon, and Scriptural descriptions of the world and the professing church in the last days are very descriptive of what we see happening today. This asteroid may not be the one prophesied in Revelation, perhaps, but it certainly gives food for thought.

[ProfessorAlan]

I guess you don't need to be a rocket scientist to be ...... well, a rocket scientist.

[lynnmosher]

Just ran across this from...

http://buzz.yahoo.com/buzzlog/91346/wednesdays-buzz-you-missed

Wednesday's Buzz You Missed
By Molly McCall
Wed, April 16, 2008, 4:45 pm PDT

NASA sets the record straight

It read like a space-age tale of David and Goliath. An enterprising 13-year-old German boy recalculates the likelihood of an asteroid hitting Earth, alerts NASA, and the big American space agency acknowledges he's right. Only problem? It's not true.

Officials from both NASA and the European Space Agency have refuted the account, which sped across the Web at the speed of light. The young man's asteroid-strike numbers were not correct and the U.S. space agency has not, repeat has not, changed its mind about the 1-in-45,000 chance that the hurtling hunk of rock will collide with our planet. (The student thought it was a 1-in-450 chance. Yikes!)

Unfortunately, all this came out after articles on the teen's statistical success soared in Buzz, and even made it to the Yahoo! front page. Lookups for "apophis," the asteroid in question, surged into the top hourly searches.

[Timber Wolf]

I guess you don't need to be a rocket scientist to be ...... well, a rocket scientist.

HAH
requiste 10 charracters

[Lookin^Up]

Someone oughta make a movie about an asteroid about to hit Earth.

Wait a minute ... they did!

[Gravity]

They oughtta put that one guy in it. That big bald guy. Bruce somebody...and that girl that was that real purty elf in that one movie...and that other little guy that kinda looks like Peter Lorre....yeah.....

[christianbkworm]

Well, the Bible does say that one of the trumpet judgements of Revelation is a burning mountain falling into the sea, destroying 1/3 of the world's ships, among other things. Very interesting article, thanks for posting it. I happen to be interested in the end times, and things which may possibly pertain to it. Scripture is quite clear that the time is coming when God will display His great wrath on the earth in mighty signs and disasters. Looking at the signs of the times, it could happen very soon. Most of the things that must be in place are in place or planned to be executed soon, and Scriptural descriptions of the world and the professing church in the last days are very descriptive of what we see happening today. This asteroid may not be the one prophesied in Revelation, perhaps, but it certainly gives food for thought.

Both the Pastor of our previous church and our current Pastor have talked about in some length. It's really interesting to see how world events are following what is predicted in the Bible. I do believe He is coming back soon and look forward to that day.

Blessings,
Lisa

[ProfessorAlan]

I do believe He is coming back soon and look forward to that day.

I look forward to that, too, whether it's in a few more years or a few more millennia.

[Lookin^Up]

An asteroid strike could very well be the fulfillment of the "falling mountain" prophecy in Revelation. A lot of things are happening today, all at the same time, which haven't happened before in world history, which makes me suspect all the more that the end is only years away, not millennia.

Now, maybe the story about the German boy is a hoax, but that doesn't mean the prophecy is null and void. It may not be Apophis that hits Tribulation Earth, but a totally different asteroid out of the blue (or black) whose approach was not viewed or foreseen. Considering how often God has surprised us throughout history, such as Samaria's economy turning around in a day, I wouldn't discount anything.

[ProfessorAlan]

Now, maybe the story about the German boy is a hoax, but that doesn't mean the prophecy is null and void ...

No, if the underlying foundation of the story isn't true, I'd have to lean toward any lessons coming from the untrue foundatio being null and void.

[Timber Wolf]

Prof-

Huh? What are you ref to when you say "[not] if the underlying foundation ... isn't true?"

Revelation taks about a burning mt., are you saying you think it is figurative rather than actuall?

[ProfessorAlan]

"underlying foundation of the story" means the German boy thing.

burning mountain could be figurative, certainly much of Revelation is, but no, that's not where I was going.

[Timber Wolf]

ahhh, so you don't think the 4German boy figured it out on his own? or you don't think he is correct? or???? I'm still confused. (but that's nthing new :) )

[ProfessorAlan]

It was LookinUp's "even if it's a hoax, it could still spell doom" mentality that I was questioning ... or questioning the logic of.

It's just that this German boy's "calculation" of a high likelihood that a meteor would hit the Earth became the jumping off point that this fit an "end is near" prophecy thought process ... but if the "calculation" was wrong, shouldn't that factor into whether it fits that timetable?

[Timber Wolf]

ahhh, ok.
thanks.

[Lookin^Up]

It was LookinUp's "even if it's a hoax, it could still spell doom" mentality that I was questioning ... or questioning the logic of.
I was speaking of the Revelation prophecy not being null and void, just because the story was a hoax. I didn't mean to imply that the calculations in question may still be valid. That's why I also said, "It may not be Apophis that hits Tribulation Earth, but a totally different asteroid out of the blue (or black) whose approach was not viewed or foreseen."

Sorry if I didn't write that clearly enough.

[ProfessorAlan]

No, you wrote it fine ... I was just disconnecting the prophecy with this current event.